Everyday Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Figures

The mean count of everyday murders per month in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent official figures. But, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide numbers might not point to enhanced national security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, explaining that last month the least figure of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense organized crime rivalries, alongside the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, security researchers cautioned that using homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the ability or the desire to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly problematic because it could mask days when there were notably elevated levels of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to official figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to create a story of improvement. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas remarked.