🔗 Share this article

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still