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The direst potential impacts of the climate emergency for the UK have been mapped by scientists, including a blistering 4C rise in average temperatures to a two-metre increase in sea levels. A separate possibility predicts a plunge of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt farming and power requirements.

Possible Outcomes, Not Predictions

These effects, some of which are connected to critical climate thresholds, are considered as low probability but credible. The researchers said that these projections plugged a hole in forecasting that had rendered the UK ill-prepared for extreme outcomes.

"The climate extremes we have detailed are not forecasts, but they are possible," commented the professor who directed the research. "Britain has been planning lacking the frameworks to test against extreme possibilities. We've now given decision-makers what they need to plan for environmental results they hope never happen, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A further series of worst-case scenarios sets out the projected severity of severe conditions between now and the year 2100. These show that thermometer readings could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than historical levels, while precipitation could be 300% of typical amounts.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to unknown factors about what measures will be implemented to combat global heating and how the planet's climate will react. This analysis was likened to defence planning or stress tests for economic stability.

Major Outcome Highlights

• 4C Temperature Rise: Worldwide averages rising well above 4C by 2100 could occur if international cooperation breaks down or if vicious cycles like the tropical forests perishing emit its enormous store of carbon. This would cause severe and lengthy heat domes and droughts affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is losing strength and losing stability due to global heating. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would face immense difficulties and water resources would be fundamentally reshaped," said the lead researcher.
• Sudden Ocean Inundation: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if ice sheets in the polar regions collapse rapidly, inundating low-lying areas. Unlike the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because tiny specks from fossil fuel combustion block solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be applied to guide the development of critical national infrastructure, including housing developments, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Understanding these climate risks could also speed the drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The study formulated the worst-case scenarios using a combination of real-world events, computer simulations and established principles. The possibilities omit potential global problems such as the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

This work was requested as part of a government’s risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have cautioned that insufficient focus was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and assess the dangers for 4C. Earlier government strategies have been labeled being "insufficient" by some observers.

A national response noted: "The climate emergency is at the heart of our national priorities, both preparing for impacts and becoming a low-carbon economy. It is essential that the UK is prepared for the effects."