Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
